Texas and Florida are maintaining their appeal as transplant destinations. But many movers are trading lower taxes and more affordable homes for higher exposure to floods and fires.
Tens of thousands more people moved to areas most at risk of floods and wildfires in the US last year, driven by migration to Texas and Florida, according to a new report from real estate company Redfin.
US counties with the highest wildfire risk saw 63,365 more people move into the country than leave in 2023, Redfin found. This change was driven primarily by population gains in Texas counties. Counties at high risk of flooding gained 16,144 new residents last year, driven largely by Florida’s population growth, the report found.
At the same time, counties less at risk from wildfires and floods saw their populations shrink last year. Redfin found that a net 38,401 people moved out of low-fire-risk counties, while 6,892 moved out of low-flood-risk counties.
This trend is not new. In a 2021 report, Redfin found that the 50 countries most at risk of extreme heat saw their populations expand by almost 5% between 2016 and 2020. This change was accelerated by pandemic-era patterns of people leaving cities big ones, as Business Insider recently reported. year. The number of people who relocated to counties most at risk of flooding and wildfires in the US more than doubled in 2021 and 2022, Redfin reported last year.
A lower cost of living in the short term, but a higher risk in the long term
Many movers prioritize housing affordability and other cost-of-living concerns over climate and environmental issues. Large numbers of people have moved from more expensive coastal cities to lower-cost locations, particularly in the Sun Belt, farther from major metros and closer to natural amenities. These places are often more vulnerable to natural disasters.
“It’s human nature to focus on immediate benefits, such as waterfront views or a low cost of living, over costs that may increase in the long term, such as property damage or reduced property values,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist. of Redfin. last year. “It is also human nature to reduce risks that are difficult to measure, such as climate change.”
But migration to flood and fire-prone areas appears to be slowing somewhat. The number of people who have moved into the most flood-prone counties in the US has dropped significantly since 2022, Redfin found. The Houston metro area, which is particularly vulnerable to storms and flooding, has also lost population, even though its real estate prices are lower than surrounding areas. Shorter moves within states also suggest Americans are becoming more sensitive to climate risks, according to the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit that measures climate risks.
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events is likely to affect drivers. These events are also helping to send home insurance premiums through the roof — and even causing some insurers to pull out of entire regions. In California, for example, two major insurers — State Farm and Allstate — announced they would stop accepting new customers in the state.
Most Americans do not want to move to more dangerous areas. The vast majority of house hunters – 57% – say living in “an area where homes are at low risk of a natural or climate disaster such as fire, flood, poor air quality” is a “must have”. while 28% say they According to a recent Redfin survey, would be willing to live in an area with a higher risk of natural or climate disasters if it meant finding an affordable home.
Lower-income Americans tend to live in areas more vulnerable to extreme weather. In many cities, lower-income and predominantly black neighborhoods are in the areas with less tree cover, higher temperatures and greater risk of flooding. Black residents of southeastern states are more likely to live in places affected by excessive heat, floods and hurricanes, a McKinsey analysis found. found in 2023.
A Brookings Institution REPORT last year recommended several ways policymakers can encourage Americans to seek climate security. The researchers argued that Congress and the Federal Housing Finance Agency should work with mortgage lenders and title insurers to factor climate risk into their rates, charging homeowners more based on how much risk they’re taking on. .
Often, homebuyers don’t know what types of climate risks their property faces, so state and local governments can develop rules about what information a potential homebuyer must be given and then set taxes more stringently. high for the most dangerous properties.
“Higher tolls in high-risk areas serve two purposes: they encourage price-sensitive households to choose safer locations, and they also provide local governments with more revenue to improve the climate resilience of infrastructure,” writes Jenny Schuetz and Julia Gill of Brookings.
Zoning and other land-use regulations, Schuetz and Gill argued, should be reformed to encourage denser development in safer locations and less sprawl in areas particularly affected by climate. The researchers recommended that local policymakers think more carefully about where to invest in infrastructure — including roads, schools, and water and sewer capacity — in climate-affected areas to discourage or encourage people to move to certain areas.